Behind the First Production and Sales Surpassing 10 Million Units in the First Four Months: "Cooling Down" of Fuel-Powered Passenger Vehicles and General Decline in Retail Share of Joint Venture Brands

On May 12, CAAM released data showing that in April, auto production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, down 12.9% and 11.2% MoM, and up 8.9% and 9.8% YoY, respectively. From January to April, auto production and sales totaled 10.175 million and 10.06 million units, up 12.9% and 10.8% YoY, respectively, marking the first time in history that production and sales exceeded 10 million units in the first four months.

In terms of domestic passenger vehicle sales, April saw 1.792 million units sold domestically, down 12.9% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Among them, domestic sales of traditional internal combustion engine passenger vehicles were 836,000 units, down 42,000 units YoY, a decline of 20.3% MoM and 4.8% YoY. From January to April, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 7.032 million units, up 14.3% YoY. Among them, domestic sales of traditional internal combustion engine passenger vehicles were 3.592 million units, down 180,000 units YoY, a decline of 4.8% YoY.

After the internal combustion engine passenger vehicle market bid farewell to a "recovery" and faced another "cold spell," the monthly sales of joint venture auto brands relying on internal combustion engine vehicles in China showed significant divergence.

On May 12, Nissan China released its latest sales data, showing that Nissan's China region, including both passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles, sold 46,295 units in April, down 15.71% YoY. Among them, Dongfeng Nissan (including Nissan, Venucia, and Infiniti brands) sold 42,142 units, down 18.99% YoY. From January to April 2025, Nissan's China region, including both passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles, sold a total of 167,630 units, down 24.56% YoY.

Honda faced even more significant pressure in China. In April, Honda's end-user auto sales in China were 43,689 units, down 40.83% YoY. From January to April, cumulative sales were 201,576 units, down 28.20% YoY. Specifically, GAC Honda sold 18,491 units in April, down 25.06% YoY, with cumulative sales from January to April down 21.48% YoY. Dongfeng Honda sold 22,036 units in April, down 33.80% YoY, with cumulative sales from January to April down 42.3% YoY.

In stark contrast to the performance of Nissan and Honda in China, as the leading Japanese joint venture brand, "North and South Toyota" has recorded consecutive positive sales growth in recent months. According to the latest production and sales announcement, GAC Toyota sold 49,800 units in April, up 2.08% YoY, with cumulative sales from January to April reaching 211,400 units, up 3.20% YoY. FAW Toyota sold 65,024 units in April, up 32% YoY.

Against the backdrop of the continuous decline in the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) market, FAW-Volkswagen achieved whole vehicle sales of 113,406 units in April, with its ICEV share increasing by 0.4 percentage points YoY. Among them, the Volkswagen brand sold 68,001 units, up 7.9% YoY, and its ICEV share increased by 0.7 percentage points YoY. The Audi brand sold 36,900 units (including imported vehicles), ranking first in cumulative market share for domestically produced luxury ICEVs from January to April.

The two joint ventures under SAIC Motor are in a prolonged slump. The latest production and sales announcement for April shows that SAIC Volkswagen sold 82,523 units, down 10.31% YoY, with cumulative sales in the first four months of the year down 8.64% YoY. SAIC-GM sold 42,069 units, down 15.29% YoY, with cumulative sales from January to April down 6.27% YoY.

Against the backdrop of safeguarding the current ICEV market, accelerating the transformation towards new energy and intelligence has become imperative for joint venture brands. Ralf Brandstätter, Chairman and CEO of Volkswagen Group China, revealed that by 2027, the Volkswagen Group will launch over 20 electrified car models in the Chinese market, and by 2030, it will offer around 30 pure electric vehicle models in China. "By 2030, Volkswagen hopes to capture over 15% of the market share, with 80% being new energy products." Lu Xiao, General Manager of SAIC-GM, stated bluntly that by 2026, the proportion of SAIC-GM's new energy vehicle sales will exceed 50%, and by 2027, it will exceed 60%.

The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that in April, mainstream joint venture brands achieved retail sales of 440,000 units, down 3% YoY and 8% MoM. In April, German brands accounted for 15.6% of retail sales, down 3.4 percentage points YoY. Japanese brands accounted for 12.2% of retail sales, down 2.7 percentage points YoY. American brands accounted for 4.8% of retail sales, down 1.1 percentage points YoY.

"This year, the national trade-in policy was launched early, with subsidies implemented in one go. The market growth was good at the beginning of the year, leading to relatively mild price wars. The cut-throat competition in the industry has improved due to market growth. The retail sales YoY growth rate in April this year is the highest in the same period of normal years over the past decade, reversing the characteristic of low retail sales growth in April over the past decade and further weakening the quarterly cyclical fluctuations in the automotive market." Looking ahead to the auto market in May, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, believes that against the backdrop of an increasingly rich brand product matrix, the new vehicle launches at the Shanghai Auto Show this time were mild. Independent new energy brands mostly launched mid-to-high-end models, while joint venture models took the lead in offering surprise prices for new energy vehicle launches. It is expected that the auto market growth in May will be relatively stable.